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A bettor made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro just before it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the US operation.

Market Movement in Predictions

Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the close of the month rose in the hours before President Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that Maduro had been seized.

A particular user, which registered on the site recently and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned over $nearly half a million from a modest bet of $32,537.

It remains unclear. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification.

Probability Spikes Before Public Statement

Market statistics shows that traders assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event.

However the odds had climbed to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of Saturday, suggesting a sudden change in betting activity just before the social media post was made.

"This particular bet has all the signs of a trade based on confidential knowledge," said Dennis Kelleher.

A small number of other individuals also made large payouts from predicting the capture.

Regulatory Scrutiny Grows

Politicians are starting to take note.

A new rule put forward on the start of the week aims to prohibit federal workers from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market.

Market Background

Prediction markets have grown significantly in the past few years, with participants able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to politics.

Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. But it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate.

Insider trading is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting space.

A company executive for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."