Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The typical count of daily murders per month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent government data. Nevertheless, public safety experts have cautioned that homicide figures could fail to signal improved countrywide safety.

Marked Reduction in Daily Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in last November compared with almost 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the director of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded during these past months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that last month the least number of homicides were registered for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Fierce cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily military campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety plan for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific tracking town by town in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central pillars of the President's safety plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced collaboration between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that focusing solely on murder numbers to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be very good news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the context of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to properly identify and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it could mask periods when there were notably spiking numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily average renders surges of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for serious crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains beset by severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the country to show their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to build a story of improvement. Politically it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst concluded.