Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."